Thought Leadership

With demand for petrol and diesel facing shifting global demand profiles, acceleration of clean energy technologies, and tighter environmental regulations, refineries are under increasing pressure. As a result, operators are faced with hard choices about whether to reinvest, repurpose or plan a phased exit, and this is where master planning can offer a strategic reset.

GCC’s Position and Emerging Challenges

The Gulf Co-operating Council (GCC) region operates modern, world-scale integrated facilities that remain competitive thanks to advantageous supply positioning. Capacity will grow as expansion and debottlenecking projects conclude, creating opportunities to capture margins as aging assets in Europe and America close.

However, long-term demand for traditional fuels is slowing, and energy transition initiatives are advancing. Operators must recalibrate product slates and optimise revenue streams to remain viable.

Despite over 70 operational refineries in the Middle East, regional output is lagging. Saudi Arabia is preparing to take more facilities offline after two closures earlier this year. Heavy turnaround activity has tightened supply, forcing reliance on imports. Gasoline imports from northwest Europe to the Middle East hit a seven-month high last July, with Saudi volumes jumping from 144,000t in June to 478,000t in July.

Ownership in the GCC remains consolidated under NOCs and joint ventures, which have deep technical and commercial expertise. These businesses are seeking ways to leverage capabilities for competitiveness in a changing market.

What Is Master Planning?

Master planning is a decision-making framework for complex assets, designed to improve performance, extend life, transition to new purposes, or exit while preserving value. It integrates technical assessments, commercial modelling, regulatory compliance, and capability planning.

The process addresses five critical profitability drivers:

• Feedstock optimisation – configuring feed to maximise margin.
• Cost control – reducing fixed and operating overheads.
• Technology application – targeting investment for real value.
• Revenue improvement – optimising yield and product mix.
• Regulatory readiness – ensuring compliance now and in future.

The Process

The first step is clarifying strategic direction: Will the asset run for 10–20 more years? Transition to a hydrogen hub or biofuels site? Prepare for decommissioning? Investment appetite, operational constraints, and stakeholder priorities shape the plan.

Next comes a deep dive into the asset. For example, KBR’s process involves structured data collection, on-site inspections, and desktop analysis to assess infrastructure, process units, equipment criticality, maintenance effectiveness, spares strategy, yield performance, and compliance. Risk-based evaluations and condition grading follow.

This assessment is compared against business goals, with margin and market analysis guiding optimisation and capital investment decisions. Configuration reviews check alignment with future product needs and policy requirements, while technology screening identifies reliability and emissions improvements. Regulatory compliance reviews ensure readiness for evolving standards.

Finally, the master plan is developed: short-term improvement actions and long-term transformation options sequenced around turnaround cycles. Interactive workshops help prioritise actions and create a realistic, risk-managed roadmap.

Why Timing Matters

Turnaround cycles—every four to six years—are critical windows for major upgrades or reconfiguration. Missing one can delay opportunities until the end of the decade. A full-site turnaround can cost millions, with lost production alone exceeding $3 million per day. Performance gaps between average and top-performing refineries can reach $20–50 million annually. Even small operational improvements in scheduling or spares strategy can unlock significant gains.

Master Planning in Action

KBR recently delivered a master plan for a 400,000 b/d refinery in the region. The modern facility already operated efficiently with zero fuel oil yield, allowing focus on margin improvement and integration.

The project unfolded in three phases:

1. Phase 1: Identify value extraction opportunities without major capital spend.
2. Phase 2: Screen configuration options for strategic development aligned with future demand.
3. Phase 3: Integrate findings into a master plan and investment roadmap, including synergies with neighbouring facilities.

The result: a structured plan balancing short-term profit enhancement with long-term competitiveness.

Beyond Assets: People and Systems

Master planning also addresses digital tools and workforce capability. Platforms like Maximo enable predictive maintenance and spares optimisation without major capital spend. Organisational design, role profiles, training pathways, and succession planning ensure teams evolve alongside assets.

KBR supports implementation through competency frameworks and transition plans, helping organisations move from intention to execution.

The Strategic Imperative

Master planning doesn’t eliminate uncertainty, but it creates clarity and actionable pathways. Whether extending life through reinvestment or preparing for shutdown or repurposing, having a strategic plan is essential. For operators seeking control in an unpredictable landscape, master planning may be the most valuable investment they make.

About the Author 

Rob Sumpter is a Principal Consultant with KBR Consulting and a chemical engineer with more than three decades of international experience. He has worked with operators and refiners worldwide to improve operational performance, optimise processes, and strengthen organisational effectiveness, supporting projects from technical due diligence and turnarounds to major refinery modernisations and energy transition initiatives.